Dele Sobowale: Atiku Will Win Most Nigeria’s Disputed Election

have no chance. “God is always on the side of the big battalions.” Marshall Turene, 1611- 1675….These are the battalion commanders in Nigerian politics as we move towards 2023.”

In the same article, the following prediction was made about the PDP and APC teams. “Second, Atiku will return to the South for his tag-team partner. He might repeat the experiment with Peter Obi. But, that is highly doubtful; Obi no longer controls his state’s votes. Instead, a South South governor in strong control of his state’s votes will be the likely choice. I again have an idea who will be his VP… Third, while the PDP will ensure a Muslim-Christian ticket; the APC might gamble that since a Muslim-Muslim – late Chief MKO Abiola and Alhaji Babagana Kingibe – won the 1993 election overwhelmingly, there is no reason why another team so composed cannot win. At least, they know, or presume to know, where the votes are.”

With the exception of Obi’s defection to the Labour Party, LP, and Kwakanso coming out for NNDP, very little has changed. Their entries into the race made it more competitive; but, in the end, it will still be a two-horse race. Atiku and Tinubu started running from 2019; Obi and Kwakanso just a few months ago. Permit me not to dwell on why Obi and Kwakanso will only make the race more interesting – in order to get to the reason Atiku will win.

The struggle for power shift to the South was conducted without participation by Tinubu or Obi. They stood on the sidelines for two reasons. Tinubu had already collected sufficient IOUs to ensure his emergence as APC candidate. He was only rattled by the late attempt to foist Senator Lawan as consensus candidate. Obi was also not an active crusader. His defection to the LP was very fortunate because he became the elusive Igbo candidate. Unfortunately, instead of a united South East, he is opposed by some strong Igbo politicians and pervasive violence might prevent Ndigbo from coming out on Election Day to vote massively for him. Finally, there is the possibility of stay-at-home order. The bulk vote he needs is threatened. In addition, his campaign workers have failed to create the grass roots support nationally. Kwakanso will split the vote in Kano state; and that is all. He can expect nothing more.

Tinubu committed a blunder with the Mu-Mu ticket. I have called and interviewed several Christians; and it is likely that 80 per cent will not vote for the APC ticket. That is a lot of votes to concede to your opponents. And, given a choice between a Northern and a Southern Muslim, the votes in the North will go North. Tinubu is not Abiola and Atiku is not Tofa…..

Unfortunately, nothing INEC does now will guarantee a free and fair election. There will be no voting in thousands of polling stations; creating a situation like we had in the 1964 General Elections. Those old enough should remember. Hell was let loose.

Source:- Independent Ng