The Misconception About Votes From Northern Nigeria

Let me categorically say that I will never subscribe to the notion that the North holds the aces in the presidentia[/b]l elections pack of cards in Nigeria.

This notion is a myth. It is not backed by evidence. And it is on this basis that they arrogantly expect people in the South to pander to them, while they make no attempts to woo those from the South.

Let’s get some facts straight.

1. [b]Since 2003, whenever the North had a horse in the presidential race, they have always voted as a block to back that horse.
   Against Obasanjo, they voted for Buhari as the attached map shows. On the two occasions against Jonathan, the North voted for Buhari. The only time this pattern did not matter was in 2007 when it was Buhari, Yar’Adua, and Atiku running for office.
2. The block votes of the North have never been sufficient in winning them any election since 2003. The only time this block produced victory was in 2015 against Jonathan – when the South West allied with the block votes of the North.
3. The North definitely does not have more numbers than the South. They have traditionally been more civically inclined, with practically everyone of voting age getting registered and turning up for elections.

The voter apathy in the South has traditionally been a self-inflicted handicap that fuels the myth of the “numbers” of the North. Despite this “advantage” and the shenanigans of underaged voting, ballot box stuffing, and the influx of elements from across the border during elections, the North has still never been able to win any elections on their own.

4. So, if you think you need them, I guarantee you that they need you as much. So why are they asking you to woo them and are not making any attempt to woo you? Why is no one thanking you a Southerner for supporting Atiku, but you are on Twitter thanking every Fulani person who is supporting Peter Obi as if they are doing you a favour? Why is every riff-raff asking Obi to come see their Imams and leaders if he wants their votes, when no one is asking Atiku to come see your pastors if he wants your own votes?
5. When we had Yar’adua, Buhari, and Atiku…the North been still didn’t rate Atiku. Why will they rate him now? Because ethnicity and religion will always come first for many of them. Stop trying to justify yourself to any adult asking you silly questions – you won’t convert anybody asking you of such. They are only patronizing you. Save yourself some respect.
6. Nigeria has never been more divided and it is not my fault.

People are going to use whatever to win the elections – religion and ethnicity will be major parts for sure. Tinubu’s supporters are mostly Yoruba (8 out of 10 people I see supporting him online are either Olakunle or Adeniji). The bulk of Atiku’s supporters are Northerners and Muslims. Peter Obi has a catchment area – the South-East, the South-South, and CHRISTIANS. While it is good to make appearances in places we know for sure he is not liked, he should not lose focus of where his true constituency is and milk every vote he can from there. Let him visit more churches and get more pastors to spread his message. Don’t kid yourself, they are doing the same thing in the North.

7. The Middle Belt (I will stone anybody that calls us the North again), are the swing states. With next year’s elections taking a very regional and religious dimension already, this region that has no dog in the race could decide things for us. The people here are winnable unlike those in the West and the North. Obi should gain grounds here, the South East and South South are already self-running.
8. Peter Obi can win, and he does not need to be loved everywhere, nor does he need to win everywhere.